WEEK IN PERSPECTIVE: Week ending December 19th, 2025

Mixed action as late week tech rally lifts markets:

Stocks ended the week mixed as tech volatility and sector rotation overshadowed economic data that left Fed expectations unchanged. The S&P 500 inched up 0.1%, the Nasdaq gained 0.5%, and the Dow slipped 0.7%. Small‑caps lagged, with the Russell 2000 down 0.9% and the S&P Mid Cap 400 flat.

Tech & AI: Oracle and Broadcom dragged semis early, but Micron’s strong earnings reignited the AI trade and lifted chipmakers late in the week.

Sector Moves: Consumer discretionary led (+1.0%) on strength in travel, leisure, and Tesla. Energy fell sharply (‑2.9%) as optimism around a potential Russia‑Ukraine peace deal pressured oil. Defensive sectors were mixed; health care (+0.6%) outperformed on drug‑pricing news.

Macro: Data pointed to a cooling but steady backdrop—November payrolls beat expectations, unemployment rose to 4.6%, retail sales were flat, and inflation eased modestly. None of it shifted near‑term Fed views.

Weekly Index Moves:

• Nasdaq: +0.5%

• S&P 500: +0.1%

• S&P Mid Cap 400: flat

• Dow: –0.7%

• Russell 2000: –0.9%

🔮 Market Outlook: What Major Analysts Expect Going Forward:

📈 1. Equity Returns: Positive but More Moderate

• Morgan Stanley expects continued gains, but more muted than the past two years, as valuations are already elevated and earnings growth normalizes.

• Goldman Sachs forecasts the S&P 500 rising to 6,500, implying roughly a 10% total return driven by steady earnings growth and solid economic expansion.

• Schwab’s 2025 outlook highlights steady but slower growth, with attention on earnings quality and sector dispersion.

Takeaway:

Most major firms expect positive but not explosive returns—think mid‑single to low‑double‑digit gains.

📌 Bottom Line

Across major institutions, the consensus outlook is:

✔️ Positive but moderate equity returns✔️ AI remains a multi‑year growth driver✔️ Fed policy stays cautious but supportive✔️ Sector leadership broadens

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