WEEK IN PERSPECTIVE: Week ending March 6, 2026

The stock market weathered another turbulent week as surging oil prices—driven by the escalating conflict involving Iran—set the tone for broader macro sentiment. Major indices finished lower across the board: the S&P 500 fell 1.6%, the Nasdaq Composite slipped 1.3%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 2.0%. The S&P 500 also notched a new low for 2026 on Friday, while the Nasdaq closed below its 200-day moving average (22,176.42), highlighting renewed pressure on growth stocks.

Small- and mid-cap equities fared no better. The Russell 2000 declined 1.8%, and the S&P Mid Cap 400 lost 2.0%.

Energy Prices Drive Market Sentiment:

The dominant theme of the week was the market’s heightened sensitivity to oil. Crude prices swung sharply on headlines tied to the conflict and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, ultimately ending the week up 5.5%. Each move higher in oil weighed on equities as investors reassessed inflation risks and the Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory. By week’s end, futures markets were no longer confident the Fed would deliver even a single 25-basis-point rate cut in 2025.

Treasury yields climbed in tandem with shifting inflation expectations. The 2‑year yield rose 17 basis points to 3.73%, while the 10‑year yield increased 16 basis points to 4.29%.

Sector Performance:

Sector moves largely reflected the impact of rising energy prices:

• Energy was the only cyclical sector to finish higher, gaining 2.1%.

• Defensive groups held up relatively well: utilities rose 0.4%, and consumer staples dipped just 0.2%.

Most other sectors struggled:

• Financials fell 3.4% amid rising yields and renewed stress in private credit markets.

• Industrials dropped 3.2% as transportation stocks were hit by higher fuel costs.

• Consumer discretionary declined 3.0%, pressured by weakness in travel names and homebuilders. The iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF slid 5.4%.

Technology showed relative resilience but still finished lower. The information technology sector slipped 0.8%, and communication services fell 1.2%. Under the surface, performance diverged sharply: semiconductor stocks outperformed, with the PHLX Semiconductor Index rising 1.8%, while software names faced persistent selling, dragging the iShares Expanded Tech-Software ETF down 4.3%.

Mega-cap growth stocks also came under pressure. The Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF declined 1.8%, with Meta Platforms weighing on communication services after reports of delays to its next AI model.

Economic Data Takes a Back Seat:

Macroeconomic reports played a secondary role as geopolitical developments dominated sentiment. February CPI matched expectations at both the headline and core levels, and January PCE rose 0.3% as anticipated. However, investors largely discounted these readings given the likelihood that upcoming inflation data will reflect the recent spike in energy prices.

Meanwhile, the second estimate of Q4 GDP was revised sharply lower to 0.7% from 1.4%, while the GDP price deflator was revised higher—another reminder of lingering inflation pressures.

Bottom Line:

Markets remain tightly tethered to energy prices. With crude oil volatile amid the conflict involving Iran and ongoing disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, equities are highly sensitive to geopolitical headlines that could reshape expectations for supply, inflation, and Federal Reserve policy.

Week-to-date performance:

• Nasdaq Composite: –1.3%

• S&P 500: –1.6%

• Russell 2000: –1.8%

• Dow Jones Industrial Average: –2.0%

• S&P Mid Cap 400: –2.0%

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